Rates on 30-year mortgages have been slowly grinding higher after sinking to a 7-month low just after Christmas. Tacking on a few more basis points Friday, the 30-year new purchase average is up to 7.20%. Most other loan averages rose modestly as well to end the week.

Because rates vary widely across lenders, it's always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you're seeking.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type	New Purchase	Refinance
30-Year Fixed	7.20%	7.86%
FHA 30-Year Fixed	7.05%	7.37%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed	6.45%	6.45%
15-Year Fixed	6.38%	6.63%
5/6 ARM	7.51%	7.71%

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: New Purchase

Since dropping as low as 6.91% on Dec. 27—the cheapest reading in more than seven months—the 30-year new purchase mortgage average has progressively ticked higher. Another rise of 3 basis points Friday takes the flagship average to 7.20%, which is almost three-tenths of a percentage point above late December's low. Still, 30-year rates are dramatically lower than the historic 23-year peak of 8.45% they averaged on Oct. 17. Rates on 15-year new purchase loans also added 3 basis points Friday. The average is now up to a three-week high of 6.38%, which like the 30-year average is more than a quarter percentage point above its recent 7-month low of 6.10%. In October, 15-year rates soared to a 7.59% peak, the most expensive average since 2000. Jumbo 30-year rates meanwhile marked time Friday, holding at an average of 6.45%. That's compared to a 6.31% low from the previous week. Though daily historical jumbo rates are not available before 2009, it's estimated that the 7.52% peak reached in October was the most expensive jumbo 30-year average in more than 20 years. Rates on other loan types mostly moved very modestly higher or marched in place Friday. The biggest movers were the 7/6 and 10/6 adjustable-rate averages, which climbed 10 and 8 basis points, respectively. The FHA 30-year average was the only declining rate, though it dipped just 2 basis points.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type	New Purchase Rates	Daily Change
30-Year Fixed	7.20%	+0.03
FHA 30-Year Fixed	7.05%	-0.02
VA 30-Year Fixed	6.98%	+0.03
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed	6.45%	No Change
20-Year Fixed	6.99%	+0.04
15-Year Fixed	6.38%	+0.03
FHA 15-Year Fixed	6.86%	+0.04
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed	6.53%	No Change
10-Year Fixed	6.31%	+0.04
10/6 ARM	7.53%	+0.08
7/6 ARM	7.61%	+0.10
Jumbo 7/6 ARM	6.20%	No Change
5/6 ARM	7.51%	+0.02
Jumbo 5/6 ARM	6.30%	No Change

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: Refinancing

The majority of Friday's refinancing averages were flat or moved just a few basis points higher. But the 30-year refi average jumped 12 basis points, making it the day's biggest mover among refi rates. The rise increases the spread between 30-year new purchase and refi rates to a wide 66 basis points. Refi rates for 15-year loans meanwhile inched 3 basis points higher, while Friday's jumbo 30-year refi average held steady.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type	Refinance Rates	Daily Change
30-Year Fixed	7.86%	+0.12
FHA 30-Year Fixed	7.37%	+0.07
VA 30-Year Fixed	7.44%	+0.11
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed	6.45%	No Change
20-Year Fixed	7.51%	+0.11
15-Year Fixed	6.63%	+0.03
FHA 15-Year Fixed	6.97%	+0.09
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed	6.53%	No Change
10-Year Fixed	6.50%	+0.02
10/6 ARM	7.75%	+0.02
7/6 ARM	7.79%	-0.02
Jumbo 7/6 ARM	6.30%	No Change
5/6 ARM	7.71%	No Change
Jumbo 5/6 ARM	6.30%	No Change

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan type, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies. On Thursday, only five states had an average rate higher than 7%. The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase rates were Vermont, North Carolina, Connecticut, and New York, while the states with the most expensive rates were Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Oregon.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

• The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Since that time, the Fed has been aggressively raising the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it does not directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

However, given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over the last 18 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in an upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed has opted to hold rates steady at its last three meetings, the last of which concluded Dec. 13. Though Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the rate-setting committee is leaving the possibility of another rate hike on the table, should inflation not progress further downward as projected, data released with the recent Fed announcement show that none of the 19 Fed members expect another rate increase. In fact, the committee's median expectation is that three rate cuts will be implemented by the end of 2024, with 80% predicting two to four rate decreases. The Fed's next rate-setting meeting will conclude on Jan. 31.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.