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30-Year Mortgage Rates Move Higher for a Third Day

Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - March 18, 2024
After falling early last week to their lowest level since the start of February, 30-year mortgage rates have reversed course over the past three days. Shooting up a cumulative third of a percentage point, the average is now up to 7.45%. Rates for other loan types moved generally higher Friday, though most averages showed just modest increases.
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Because rates vary widely across lenders, it's always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you're seeking.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type New Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 7.45% 7.80%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.43% 7.60%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.95% 6.95%
15-Year Fixed 6.69% 6.86%
5/6 ARM 7.65% 7.76%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: New Purchase

Rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages jumped another 11 basis points Friday, after adding 23 points the two previous days. That bumps the flagship average to 7.45%, which is notably up from its recent low of 7.11%, and is close to a 7.48% peak seen three weeks ago.
Given that 30-year rates sank into 6% territory at the start of February, Friday's average is elevated. Still, rates are dramatically cheaper than in October, when the 30-year average notched a historic 23-year peak of 8.45%.
Rates on 15-year new purchase loans meanwhile held roughly steady Friday, tacking on just 2 basis points. The 15-year average is now 6.69%, a two-week high. Though current rates are pricier than the seven-month low of 6.10% we saw just before the new year, they are still much more affordable than last fall's 7.59% average, a peak since 2000.
Jumbo 30-year rates marched in place Friday at 6.95%, matching their highest mark since November. Though daily historical jumbo rates were not available before 2009, it's estimated the 7.52% peak reached last October was the most expensive jumbo 30-year average in more than 20 years.
Many other new purchase averages moved only a few basis points in either direction Friday. The biggest gainers were jumbo 15-year and jumbo 5/6 adjustable-rate loans, whose averages each climbed 13 basis points.
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.45% +0.11
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.43% -0.03
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.09% +0.05
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.95% No Change
20-Year Fixed 7.11% +0.09
15-Year Fixed 6.69% +0.02
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.82% No Change
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.91% +0.13
10-Year Fixed 6.59% +0.04
10/6 ARM 7.60% +0.04
7/6 ARM 7.58% +0.08
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.58% No Change
5/6 ARM 7.65% -0.03
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.68% +0.13

The Weekly Freddie Mac Average

Every Thursday afternoon, Freddie Mac publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates, and last week's reading subtracted 14 basis points to fall to 6.74%. Back in late October, Freddie Mac's average reached a historic peak of 7.79%—its most expensive level in 23 years. But since then, it has come down significantly, registering a recent low of 6.60% in mid-January.

Freddie Mac’s average differs from our own 30-year average for two notable reasons. First, Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates, while our Investopedia averages are daily, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. Second, the rates included in Freddie Mac's survey can include loans priced with discount points, while Investopedia’s averages only include zero-point loans.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: Refinancing

Refinancing rates climbed Friday for almost every loan type, though most saw minimal increases. Like its new purchase sibling, the 30-year refi average shot up, gaining 18 basis points. That leaves the gap between 30-year new purchase and refi rates at 35 basis points.
Rate movement among other refi loan types was more modest. Friday's only notable gainers were jumbo 15-year and jumbo 5/6 ARM loans, which rose 13 basis points.
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.80% +0.18
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.60% +0.04
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.64% +0.05
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.95% No Change
20-Year Fixed 7.44% +0.07
15-Year Fixed 6.86% +0.02
FHA 15-Year Fixed 7.00% +0.05
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.91% +0.13
10-Year Fixed 6.79% +0.02
10/6 ARM 7.75% +0.03
7/6 ARM 7.84% +0.02
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.68% No Change
5/6 ARM 7.76% +0.03
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.68% +0.13

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive, while these rates are averages. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan. The mortgage rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it may be higher or lower than the averages you see here.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan type, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.
The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase rates were Louisiana, Mississippi, Vermont, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Rhode Island, and Virginia, while the states with the most expensive rates were Tennessee, Alabama, Minnesota, Oregon, and Arizona.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it does not directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed has opted to hold rates steady at its last four meetings, the last of which concluded Jan. 31. Though the central bank's statement signaled that we have almost certainly reached the end of Fed rate hikes in this campaign, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation is still too high, and they will therefore proceed cautiously on deciding when to make the first rate cut. Specifically, he indicated it's unlikely they will be ready for any rate reduction by the time of their next meeting, which is scheduled for March 19–20.

After its December meeting, the Fed released quarterly data that showed almost 80% of Fed members expect there to be two to four rate cuts in 2024, with the median expectation being three rate decreases totaling 0.75%. But when in 2024 these will begin—and ultimately how many are implemented this year—is an open question at this time.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.
Article Sources
Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.
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