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Mortgage Rates Drop Again, Taking 30-Year Average Almost Down to 7%

Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - Jan. 30, 2024

For a fourth consecutive day, 30-year mortgage rates declined Monday, lowering the flagship average to 7.05%. Rates on 30-year loans have been moving in a range slightly above 7% every day of 2024 except for one. Most other loan averages also dipped Monday, with a handful holding steady.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it's always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you're seeking.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type New Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 7.05% 7.60%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.00% 7.28%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.57% 6.58%
15-Year Fixed 6.37% 6.61%
5/6 ARM 7.49% 7.64%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: New Purchase

Thirty-year mortgage rates inched another 3 basis points lower Monday, building a four-day drop of 14 basis points and lowering the average to 7.05%. Aside from one day this year when rates dipped into 6% territory, the last four weeks have seen the flagship average moving between 7.04% and 7.24%. Thirty-year rates remain well below the historic 23-year peak of 8.45% registered in mid-October.
Monday's 15-year new purchase average also declined, subtracting 5 basis points. Now at 6.37%, the average is about a quarter of a percentage point above the seven-month low of 6.10% seen late in December. Back in October, however, 15-year rates soared to a 7.59% peak, the most expensive level since 2000.
The jumbo 30-year average held steady for an eighth market day at 6.57%, which is also about a quarter point above its recent low of 6.31%. Though daily historical jumbo rates are not available before 2009, it's estimated the 7.52% peak reached in October was the most expensive jumbo 30-year average in more than 20 years.
Most other new purchase averages edged lower or held steady Monday. The jumbo 7/6 adjustable-rate average saw the biggest drop, giving up 13 points, while the FHA 15-year average was the only upward mover, though it only climbed a single basis point.
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.05% -0.03
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.00% -0.02
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.77% -0.03
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.57% No Change
20-Year Fixed 6.90% -0.02
15-Year Fixed 6.37% -0.05
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.81% +0.01
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.66% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.33% -0.02
10/6 ARM 7.47% No Change
7/6 ARM 7.40% -0.01
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.20% -0.13
5/6 ARM 7.49% No Change
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.30% No Change

This Week's Freddie Mac Average

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates, and last week's reading rose slightly to 6.69%. Back in late October, Freddie Mac's average reached a historic peak of 7.79%—its most expensive level in 23 years. But in the three months since, the Freddie Mac 30-year average has fallen more than a full percentage point.

Freddie Mac’s average differs from our own 30-year average for two notable reasons. First, Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates, while our Investopedia averages are daily, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. Second, the rates included in Freddie Mac's survey can include loans priced with discount points, while Investopedia’s averages only include zero-point loans.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: Refinancing

Refinancing rate movement was more mixed than new purchase rates Monday. The 30-year refi average dipped 4 basis points, taking the gap between 30-year new purchase and refi rates to 55 points. And the 15-year refi average gave up 4 points as well. The jumbo 30-year refi average meanwhile marked time again.
Monday's biggest refi rate change was seen for jumbo 7/6 ARM loans, whose refi average dropped 13 basis points. But a handful of refi averages moved slightly higher Monday.
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.60% -0.04
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.28% +0.01
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.42% No Change
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.58% No Change
20-Year Fixed 7.23% +0.03
15-Year Fixed 6.61% -0.04
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.87% -0.02
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.66% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.51% -0.04
10/6 ARM 7.64% +0.07
7/6 ARM 7.67% -0.03
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.30% -0.13
5/6 ARM 7.64% No Change
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.30% No Change

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive, while these rates are averages. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan. The mortgage rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it may be higher or lower than the averages you see here.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan type, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.
The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase rates were Mississippi, Vermont, Iowa, and Louisiana, while the states with the most expensive rates were Tennessee, Nevada, Oregon, Arizona, and Washington.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in Nov. 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Since that time, the Fed has been aggressively raising the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it does not directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

However, given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over the last 18 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in an upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed has opted to hold rates steady at its last three meetings, the last of which concluded Dec. 13. Though Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the rate-setting committee is leaving the possibility of another rate hike on the table, should inflation not progress further downward as projected, data released with the recent Fed announcement show that none of the 19 Fed members expect another rate increase. In fact, the committee's median expectation is that three rate cuts will be implemented by the end of 2024. The Fed's next rate-setting meeting will conclude on Jan. 31.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.
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Investopedia / Alice Morgan
Article Sources
Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.
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