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30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Back to 6% Territory

Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - Feb. 1, 2024

Thirty-year mortgage rates have fallen every day for more than a week, and Wednesday's drop takes the average down to 6.97%. It's only the second time the flagship average has dipped below 7% this year. Rate movement was notably down for most other loan types as well Wednesday.

Because rates vary widely across lenders, it's always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you're seeking.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type New Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.97% 7.55%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.89% 7.20%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.45% 6.45%
15-Year Fixed 6.30% 6.52%
5/6 ARM 7.44% 7.62%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: New Purchase

Rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages dropped another 7 basis points Wednesday, lowering the 30-year average 22 points over the last six market days. Also notable is the return to 6% territory. Wednesday's 6.97% average is only the fourth reading since May 2023 in the 6% range. The last time was Jan. 12, and two others occurred at the very end of December. This takes 30-year rates even further below the historic 23-year peak of 8.45% they registered in October.
Rates on 15-year new purchase loans dropped even more Wednesday. Giving up 11 basis points, the 15-year average is down to 6.30%. That's still two-tenths of percentage point above the seven-month low of 6.10% seen late in December. But back in October, 15-year rates soared to a 7.59% peak, the most expensive level since 2000.
After holding steady for nine market days in a row, jumbo 30-year rates finally moved. Shedding 12 basis points, the jumbo 30-year new purchase average is down to 6.45%, a two-week low. Though daily historical jumbo rates are not available before 2009, it's estimated the 7.52% peak reached in October was the most expensive jumbo 30-year average in more than 20 years.
Aside from a few new purchase averages that held steady, all other averages moved moderately lower Wednesday. The biggest drop was seen for 20-year new purchase loans, whose rate average sank 20 basis points.
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
Loan Type New Purchase Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.97% -0.07
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.89% -0.12
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.66% -0.09
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.45% -0.12
20-Year Fixed 6.68% -0.20
15-Year Fixed 6.30% -0.11
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.79% No Change
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.53% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.23% -0.12
10/6 ARM 7.35% -0.04
7/6 ARM 7.31% No Change
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.20% No Change
5/6 ARM 7.44% -0.03
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.18% -0.12

This Week's Freddie Mac Average

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates, and today's reading dipped to 6.63%. Back in late October, Freddie Mac's average reached a historic peak of 7.79%—its most expensive level in 23 years. But in the three months since, the Freddie Mac 30-year average has fallen more than a full percentage point.

Freddie Mac’s average differs from our own 30-year average for two notable reasons. First, Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates, while our Investopedia averages are daily, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. Second, the rates included in Freddie Mac's survey can include loans priced with discount points, while Investopedia’s averages only include zero-point loans.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: Refinancing

Refinancing rates moved largely in line with their new purchase counterparts Wednesday, with the 30-year refi average declining 8 basis points. The gap between 30-year new purchase and refi rates is currently a somewhat-wide 58 basis points. The 15-year refi average fell 16 points, and the jumbo 30-year refi average was down 13 points.
Wednesday's biggest refi rate mover was VA 30-year loans, whose refi average dropped 19 basis points. All refi averages moved lower except jumbo 15-year and jumbo 7/6 ARM, which were both flat.
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.55% -0.08
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.20% -0.08
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.22% -0.19
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.45% -0.13
20-Year Fixed 7.13% -0.08
15-Year Fixed 6.52% -0.16
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.83% -0.06
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.53% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.43% -0.14
10/6 ARM 7.55% +0.02
7/6 ARM 7.51% -0.07
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 6.30% No Change
5/6 ARM 7.62% -0.01
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 6.18% -0.12

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive, while these rates are averages. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan. The mortgage rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it may be higher or lower than the averages you see here.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan type, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.
The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase rates were Mississippi, Iowa, Louisiana, and Vermont, while the states with the most expensive rates were Minnesota, Oregon, Arizona, Nevada, and Washington.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:
  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it does not directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

However, given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in an upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed has opted to hold rates steady at its last four meetings, the last of which concluded yesterday. Though the central bank's statement signaled that we have almost certainly reached the end of Fed rate hikes in this campaign, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation is still too high and they will therefore proceed cautiously on deciding when to make a first rate cut. Specifically, he indicated it's unlikely they will be ready for any rate reduction by the time of their next meeting, which is scheduled for Mar. 19-20.

After its December meeting, the Fed released quarterly data that showed almost 80% of Fed members expect there to be two to four rate cuts in 2024, with the median expectation being three rate decreases totaling 0.75%. But when in 2024 these begin—and how many ultimately are implemented this year—is an open question at this time.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.
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Investopedia / Alice Morgan
Article Sources
Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.
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